FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München preview

FSV Mainz 05 welcome Bayern München on Saturday 7 November in the Bundesliga. FSV Mainz 05 sit 8th in the table on 10 points from 8 games, while Bayern München are 1st with 17 points. That puts Bayern München seven places higher. Bayern München come into it having gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWDWW); FSV Mainz 05 have lost three of their last five (LLWLW). In front of goal, FSV Mainz 05 score 2.1 and concede 2.1 a game on average; Bayern München score 3.6 and concede 0.9.

Our model expects around 1.4 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.1 for Bayern München, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%. We put over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 70%. We make FSV Mainz 05 17% to win, the draw 17% and Bayern München 66%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 17%, 16% and 68%. Our verdict is Bayern München to win: we rate it at 66%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.48. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.