Lazio vs Cagliari prediction
Lazio
CagliariNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 54%
- Expected goals 1.6–1.1, so 50% for over 2.5 and 54% for both to score
- Last five: Lazio WWWWD, Cagliari LLDWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 76% combined.
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Lazio vs Cagliari preview
Serie A action on Sunday 1 November sees Cagliari travel to face Lazio. Lazio sit 1st in the table on 22 points from 8 games, while Cagliari are 8th with 13 points. That puts Lazio seven places higher. Recent results matter here: Lazio have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWWWD) and Cagliari have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LLDWW). Lazio average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, compared with 0.8 and 1.1 for Cagliari. Our model expects around 1.6 goals for Lazio and 1.1 for Cagliari, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. We make Lazio 48% to win, the draw 28% and Cagliari 24%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 54%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio win | 48% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – | – |
| Cagliari win | 24% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 46% | – | – | – |
| Lazio or draw | 76% | – | – | – |
| Cagliari or draw | 52% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 72% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.6 |
| Cagliari | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lazio 1–1 Cagliari | 13% |
| Lazio 1–0 Cagliari | 10% |
| Lazio 2–1 Cagliari | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lazio | |
| Cagliari |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1st | 22 | 8 |
| Cagliari | 8th | 13 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Cagliari | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Lazio vs Cagliari: FAQ
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
We make Lazio 48% to win, the draw 28% and Cagliari 24%, so Lazio are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 54%.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Cagliari?
We give both teams to score a 54% chance. Our expected goals are 1.6 for Lazio and 1.1 for Cagliari.
How many goals in Lazio vs Cagliari?
Our model expects about 2.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 50% and under 2.5 at 50%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lazio vs Cagliari kick off?
Lazio vs Cagliari kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Serie A.
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