Lazio vs Parma prediction
Lazio
ParmaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.55 implies 65%
- Expected goals 2.0–0.9 (most likely score 2-0)
- Last five: Lazio WWWDW, Parma LLWLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Lazio vs Parma preview
Lazio and Parma are under way in Serie A on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Parma are 19th on 4 points from 7 games and Lazio 2nd on 19 points from 7 games. That puts Lazio 17 places higher. Recent results matter here: Lazio have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWWDW) and Parma have lost three of their last five (LLWLD). In front of goal, Lazio score 2.0 and concede 0.6 a game on average; Parma score 0.6 and concede 1.9.
On expected goals we have Lazio at 2.1 and Parma at 0.9, with 2–0 the most likely score (11%). We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 49%. We make Lazio 64% to win, the draw 22% and Parma 14%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 65%, 22% and 13%. Our verdict is Lazio to win: we rate it at 64%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio win | 64% | 1.55 | 65% | -1% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | 22% | +0% |
| Parma win | 14% | 7.50 | 13% | +2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 2.00 | 50% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 1.96 | 51% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 2.04 | 49% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 51% | 1.83 | 55% | -6% |
| Lazio or draw | 86% | 1.14 | 88% | -1% |
| Parma or draw | 36% | 2.71 | 37% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 78% | 1.25 | 80% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.1 |
| Parma | 0.9 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lazio 2–0 Parma | 11% |
| Lazio 1–1 Parma | 11% |
| Lazio 2–1 Parma | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lazio | |
| Parma |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2nd | 19 | 7 |
| Parma | 19th | 4 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Parma | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.85 (54%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.09 (48%) | 1.83 (55%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Lazio vs Parma: FAQ
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
We make Lazio 64% to win, the draw 22% and Parma 14%, so Lazio are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Lazio the shorter price. Our verdict is Lazio to win at 64%.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Parma?
We give both teams to score a 49% chance, against 49% implied by the best price of 2.04. Our expected goals are 2.1 for Lazio and 0.9 for Parma.
How many goals in Lazio vs Parma?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and under 2.5 at 49%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.00. The single most likely score is 2–0.
What time does Lazio vs Parma kick off?
Lazio vs Parma kicked off at 18:45 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Serie A.
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