Lecce vs Genoa prediction
Lecce
GenoaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 59%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.3, so 55% for over 2.5 and 59% for both to score
- Last five: Lecce WLLWL, Genoa LWLDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 68% combined.
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Lecce vs Genoa preview
Serie A action on Sunday 1 November sees Genoa travel to face Lecce. Lecce sit 12th in the table on 9 points from 7 games, while Genoa are 17th with 4 points. Both sides have lost three of their last five: Lecce WLLWL and Genoa LWLDL. In front of goal, Lecce score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Genoa score 0.7 and concede 1.9. On expected goals we have Lecce at 1.5 and Genoa at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (13%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Lecce 40% to win, the draw 28% and Genoa 32%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 59%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce win | 40% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – | – |
| Genoa win | 32% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 41% | – | – | – |
| Lecce or draw | 68% | – | – | – |
| Genoa or draw | 60% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 72% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.5 |
| Genoa | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lecce 1–1 Genoa | 13% |
| Lecce 2–1 Genoa | 9% |
| Lecce 1–2 Genoa | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lecce | |
| Genoa |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 12th | 9 | 7 |
| Genoa | 17th | 4 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Genoa | 0.7 | 1.9 |
Lecce vs Genoa: FAQ
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
We make Lecce 40% to win, the draw 28% and Genoa 32%, so Lecce are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 59%.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Genoa?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Lecce and 1.3 for Genoa.
How many goals in Lecce vs Genoa?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lecce vs Genoa kick off?
Lecce vs Genoa kicks off at 17:00 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Serie A.
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