1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction

1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen preview

Bundesliga action on Sunday 25 October sees Bayer Leverkusen travel to face 1899 Hoffenheim. In the standings, Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 13 points from 6 games and 1899 Hoffenheim 14th on 6 points from 6 games. That puts Bayer Leverkusen ten places higher. On form, 1899 Hoffenheim have lost three of their last five (WLLWL), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone unbeaten in their last five, with four wins and one draw (WWWDW). In front of goal, 1899 Hoffenheim score 1.8 and concede 2.3 a game on average; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 and concede 1.5. On expected goals we have 1899 Hoffenheim at 2.3 and Bayer Leverkusen at 2.3, with 2–2 the most likely score (7%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 73%. We make 1899 Hoffenheim 36% to win, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 42%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 35%, 23% and 42%. Our verdict is Bayer Leverkusen or draw: we rate it at 64%, against 66% implied by the best price of 1.51. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.