SC Freiburg vs Bayern München prediction
SC Freiburg
Bayern MünchenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 75%; the best price of 1.27 implies 79%
- Expected goals 2.2–1.1, so 75% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: SC Freiburg LWDWW, Bayern München WDWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.2 and 1.1 xG.
Our model gives Bayern München the win 62%.
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SC Freiburg vs Bayern München preview
SC Freiburg host Bayern München in the Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October. In the standings, Bayern München are 1st on 14 points from 6 games and SC Freiburg 3rd on 13 points from 6 games. Recent results matter here: SC Freiburg have won three of their last five (LWDWW) and Bayern München have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDWWD). In front of goal, SC Freiburg score 2.5 and concede 1.0 a game on average; Bayern München score 3.7 and concede 0.8. On expected goals we have SC Freiburg at 2.2 and Bayern München at 1.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 65%. We make SC Freiburg 21% to win, the draw 17% and Bayern München 62%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 14%, 17% and 70%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 75%, against 79% implied by the best price of 1.27. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 21% | 7.11 | 14% | +49% |
| Draw | 17% | 5.99 | 17% | +4% |
| Bayern München win | 62% | 1.42 | 70% | -12% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 1.27 | 79% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25% | 4.33 | 23% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.42 | 70% | -7% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.90 | 34% | +0% |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 38% | 3.16 | 32% | +21% |
| Bayern München or draw | 79% | 1.14 | 88% | -10% |
| Either team to win | 83% | 1.16 | 86% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.2 |
| Bayern München | 1.1 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 1–1 Bayern München | 10% |
| SC Freiburg 2–1 Bayern München | 10% |
| SC Freiburg 2–0 Bayern München | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | |
| Bayern München |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 3rd | 13 | 6 |
| Bayern München | 1st | 14 | 6 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Bayern München | 3.7 | 0.8 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.00 (50%) | 1.99 (50%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: FAQ
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
We make SC Freiburg 21% to win, the draw 17% and Bayern München 62%, so Bayern München are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Bayern München the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 70% implied by the best price of 1.42. Our expected goals are 2.2 for SC Freiburg and 1.1 for Bayern München.
How many goals in SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 75% and under 2.5 at 25%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.27. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München kicks off at 16:30 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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