Bundesliga

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Bundesliga · Friday 30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

SV Elversberg

19:30

Kick-off (UTC)

FSV Mainz 05

Our verdict · Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Our chance66%

Best price1.53

Fair odds1.51

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 66%; the best price of 1.53 implies 65%
Expected goals 1.9–2.7, so 66% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
Last five: SV Elversberg LWLDL, FSV Mainz 05 LWLWL
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

No side is clear, so we cover two results: 71% combined.

71%

@ 1.38

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 1.9 and 2.7 xG.

66%

@ 1.47

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Every market we price for this match, on the main site.

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SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 preview

SV Elversberg welcome FSV Mainz 05 on Friday 30 October in the Bundesliga. SV Elversberg sit 8th in the table on 10 points from 7 games, while FSV Mainz 05 are 7th with 10 points. The two sides are level on points. Both sides have lost three of their last five: SV Elversberg LWLDL and FSV Mainz 05 LWLWL. SV Elversberg average 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game, compared with 2.3 and 1.9 for FSV Mainz 05. On expected goals we have SV Elversberg at 1.9 and FSV Mainz 05 at 2.7, with 1–2 the most likely score (7%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 66%. We make SV Elversberg 29% to win, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 48%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 30%, 25% and 47%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 66%, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.53. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
SV Elversberg win	29%	3.34	30%	-4%
Draw	23%	4.07	25%	-6%
FSV Mainz 05 win	48%	2.13	47%	+3%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.53	65%	+1%
Under 2.5 goals	34%	2.62	38%	-11%
Both teams to score	66%	1.47	68%	-2%
Not both to score	34%	2.63	38%	-12%
SV Elversberg or draw	52%	1.80	56%	-7%
FSV Mainz 05 or draw	71%	1.38	72%	-2%
Either team to win	77%	1.28	78%	-1%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
SV Elversberg	1.9
FSV Mainz 05	2.7
Total	4.6

Most likely scores	Chance
SV Elversberg 1–2 FSV Mainz 05	7%
SV Elversberg 2–2 FSV Mainz 05	7%
SV Elversberg 1–3 FSV Mainz 05	6%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
SV Elversberg
FSV Mainz 05

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
SV Elversberg	8th	10	7
FSV Mainz 05	7th	10	7

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
SV Elversberg	1.7	2.1
FSV Mainz 05	2.3	1.9

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.85 (54%)	1.95 (51%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: FAQ

Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

We make SV Elversberg 29% to win, the draw 23% and FSV Mainz 05 48%, so FSV Mainz 05 are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with FSV Mainz 05 the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 66%.

Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.47. Our expected goals are 1.9 for SV Elversberg and 2.7 for FSV Mainz 05.

How many goals in SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our model expects about 4.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.53. The single most likely score is 1–2.

What time does SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicks off at 19:30 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.