AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction
AS Roma
CagliariNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 55%; the best price of 1.78 implies 56%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.0, so 55% for over 2.5 and 48% for both to score
- Last five: AS Roma DWDDW, Cagliari LLDWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives AS Roma the win 69%.
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AS Roma vs Cagliari preview
AS Roma welcome Cagliari on Tuesday 27 October in Serie A. In the standings, Cagliari are 8th on 13 points from 8 games and AS Roma 3rd on 18 points from 8 games. On form, AS Roma have gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (DWDDW), while Cagliari have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LLDWW). AS Roma average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, compared with 0.8 and 1.1 for Cagliari. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for AS Roma and 1.0 for Cagliari, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 48%. We make AS Roma 69% to win, the draw 20% and Cagliari 11%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 71%, 19% and 10%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 55%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 69% | 1.40 | 71% | -4% |
| Draw | 20% | 5.20 | 19% | +4% |
| Cagliari win | 11% | 9.84 | 10% | +12% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.78 | 56% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | 45% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 2.07 | 48% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 52% | 1.75 | 57% | -8% |
| AS Roma or draw | 89% | 1.09 | 92% | -3% |
| Cagliari or draw | 31% | 3.25 | 31% | +2% |
| Either team to win | 80% | 1.20 | 83% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1.8 |
| Cagliari | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AS Roma 1–1 Cagliari | 12% |
| AS Roma 2–0 Cagliari | 10% |
| AS Roma 1–0 Cagliari | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| AS Roma | |
| Cagliari |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 3rd | 18 | 8 |
| Cagliari | 8th | 13 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Cagliari | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.05 (49%) | 1.75 (57%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: FAQ
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
We make AS Roma 69% to win, the draw 20% and Cagliari 11%, so AS Roma are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with AS Roma the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
We give both teams to score a 48% chance, against 48% implied by the best price of 2.07. Our expected goals are 1.8 for AS Roma and 1.0 for Cagliari.
How many goals in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.78. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
AS Roma vs Cagliari kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 27 October 2026, in Serie A.
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