Genoa vs Juventus prediction
Genoa
JuventusNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.70 implies 59%
- Expected goals 1.3–1.6 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Genoa LWLDL, Juventus LDWLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Genoa vs Juventus preview
Genoa host Juventus in Serie A on Wednesday 28 October. In the standings, Juventus are 10th on 11 points from 7 games and Genoa 17th on 4 points from 7 games. That puts Juventus seven places higher. Juventus come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDWLD); Genoa have lost three of their last five (LWLDL). In front of goal, Genoa score 0.7 and concede 1.9 a game on average; Juventus score 1.3 and concede 1.1. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Genoa and 1.6 for Juventus, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. We make Genoa 19% to win, the draw 25% and Juventus 56%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 18%, 25% and 59%. Our verdict is Juventus to win: we rate it at 56%, against 59% implied by the best price of 1.70. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 19% | 5.61 | 18% | +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | 25% | 0% |
| Juventus win | 56% | 1.70 | 59% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.12 | 47% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.85 | 54% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 2.00 | 50% | +0% |
| Not both to score | 50% | 1.80 | 56% | -10% |
| Genoa or draw | 44% | 2.29 | 44% | +1% |
| Juventus or draw | 81% | 1.18 | 85% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.29 | 78% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.3 |
| Juventus | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Genoa 1–1 Juventus | 13% |
| Genoa 1–2 Juventus | 9% |
| Genoa 0–1 Juventus | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Genoa | |
| Juventus |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 17th | 4 | 7 |
| Juventus | 10th | 11 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Juventus | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.63 (61%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Genoa vs Juventus: FAQ
Who will win Genoa vs Juventus?
We make Genoa 19% to win, the draw 25% and Juventus 56%, so Juventus are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Juventus the shorter price. Our verdict is Juventus to win at 56%.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Juventus?
We give both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% implied by the best price of 2.00. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Genoa and 1.6 for Juventus.
How many goals in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model expects about 2.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 at 51%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.12. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Genoa vs Juventus kick off?
Genoa vs Juventus kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
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