Monza vs Napoli prediction
Monza
NapoliNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 56%; the best price of 1.80 implies 56%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.3, so 56% for over 2.5 and 58% for both to score
- Last five: Monza LWLWL, Napoli DLWDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 72% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.8 and 1.3 xG.
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Monza vs Napoli preview
Monza welcome Napoli on Wednesday 28 October in Serie A. Monza sit 15th in the table on 7 points from 8 games, while Napoli are 9th with 11 points. That puts Napoli six places higher. On form, Monza have lost three of their last five (LWLWL), while Napoli have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DLWDW). Monza average 1.9 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.6 and 1.3 for Napoli. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Monza and 1.3 for Napoli, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. We make Monza 28% to win, the draw 25% and Napoli 47%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 24%, 26% and 51%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 56%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.80. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 28% | 4.10 | 24% | +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.92 | 26% | -1% |
| Napoli win | 47% | 1.96 | 51% | -8% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 | 56% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.17 | 46% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 1.65 | 61% | -4% |
| Not both to score | 42% | 2.20 | 45% | -9% |
| Monza or draw | 53% | 1.94 | 52% | +3% |
| Napoli or draw | 72% | 1.29 | 78% | -7% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.30 | 77% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Monza | 1.8 |
| Napoli | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Monza 1–1 Napoli | 12% |
| Monza 2–1 Napoli | 9% |
| Monza 2–0 Napoli | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Monza | |
| Napoli |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 15th | 7 | 8 |
| Napoli | 9th | 11 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Napoli | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.37 (42%) | 1.55 (65%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Monza vs Napoli: FAQ
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
We make Monza 28% to win, the draw 25% and Napoli 47%, so Napoli are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Napoli the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Napoli?
We give both teams to score a 58% chance, against 61% implied by the best price of 1.65. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Monza and 1.3 for Napoli.
How many goals in Monza vs Napoli?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 56% and under 2.5 at 44%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.80. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Monza vs Napoli kick off?
Monza vs Napoli kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
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