Serie A

Napoli vs AS Roma prediction

Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Napoli

3–3

Full time

AS Roma

Result: Napoli 3–3 AS Roma

Pick	Outcome
AS Roma or draw	Won
Both teams to score	Won

Settled on our public track record.

Our verdict · Double chance

AS Roma or draw Won

Our chance67%

Best price1.52

Fair odds1.50

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 59%
Expected goals 1.0–1.3, so 41% for over 2.5 and 48% for both to score
Last five: Napoli LWDWL, AS Roma WDDWW
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Both teams to score

56%

@ 1.67

Won

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Napoli vs AS Roma preview

AS Roma were the visitors at Napoli in Serie A on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, AS Roma are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games and Napoli 9th on 11 points from 8 games. That puts AS Roma six places higher. AS Roma come into it having gone unbeaten in their last five, with two wins and three draws (DWDDW); Napoli have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DLWDW). In front of goal, Napoli score 1.6 and concede 1.3 a game on average; AS Roma score 2.4 and concede 0.8.

Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Napoli and 1.3 for AS Roma, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 15%. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 56%. We make Napoli 33% to win, the draw 29% and AS Roma 37%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 35%, 29% and 36%. Our verdict is AS Roma or draw: we rate it at 67%, against 66% implied by the best price of 1.52. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Napoli win	33%	2.85	35%	-5%
Draw	29%	3.50	29%	+3%
AS Roma win	37%	2.80	36%	+5%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	49%	1.93	52%	-6%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	2.05	49%	+5%
Both teams to score	56%	1.67	60%	-6%
Not both to score	44%	2.38	42%	+5%
Napoli or draw	63%	1.52	66%	-5%
AS Roma or draw	67%	1.52	66%	+1%
Either team to win	71%	1.36	74%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Napoli	1.0
AS Roma	1.3
Total	2.3

Most likely scores	Chance
Napoli 1–1 AS Roma	15%
Napoli 0–0 AS Roma	11%
Napoli 0–1 AS Roma	11%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Napoli
AS Roma

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Napoli	9th	11	8
AS Roma	3rd	18	8

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Napoli	1.6	1.3
AS Roma	2.4	0.8

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	2.25 (44%)	1.75 (57%)
Cards 3.5	1.70 (59%)	2.27 (44%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Napoli vs AS Roma: FAQ

Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?

The match finished Napoli 3–3 AS Roma. Before kick-off we made Napoli 33% to win, the draw 29% and AS Roma 37%, so AS Roma were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with AS Roma the shorter price. Our verdict was AS Roma or draw at 67%.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs AS Roma?

We gave both teams to score a 56% chance, against 60% implied by the best price of 1.67. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Napoli and 1.3 for AS Roma. In the end, both teams did score.

How many goals in Napoli vs AS Roma?

Our model expects about 2.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 at 51%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.93. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 3–3, 6 goals in all.

What time does Napoli vs AS Roma kick off?

Napoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 16:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Serie A.