FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction
FC Augsburg
Union BerlinResult: FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Lost |
| Both teams to score | Won |
| FC Augsburg to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 74%
- Expected goals 2.8–0.9 (most likely score 2-0)
- Last five: FC Augsburg DLDLD, Union Berlin DDWLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin preview
Union Berlin were the visitors at FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Union Berlin are 17th on 6 points from 7 games and FC Augsburg 9th on 9 points from 7 games. That puts FC Augsburg eight places higher. Recent results matter here: FC Augsburg have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLDLD) and Union Berlin have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (DDWLL). FC Augsburg average 2.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 0.9 and 2.6 for Union Berlin.
Our model expects around 2.8 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.0 for Union Berlin, and 2–0 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 58%. We make FC Augsburg 74% to win, the draw 16% and Union Berlin 9%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 67%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 74% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 16% | – | – | – |
| Union Berlin win | 9% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 42% | – | – | – |
| FC Augsburg or draw | 91% | – | – | – |
| Union Berlin or draw | 26% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 84% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2.8 |
| Union Berlin | 1.0 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 2–0 Union Berlin | 9% |
| FC Augsburg 2–1 Union Berlin | 9% |
| FC Augsburg 3–0 Union Berlin | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | |
| Union Berlin |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 9th | 9 | 7 |
| Union Berlin | 17th | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Union Berlin | 0.9 | 2.6 |
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin: FAQ
Who will win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The match finished FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin. Before kick-off we made FC Augsburg 74% to win, the draw 16% and Union Berlin 9%, so FC Augsburg were the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict was Over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
We gave both teams to score a 58% chance. Our expected goals are 2.8 for FC Augsburg and 1.0 for Union Berlin. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and under 2.5 at 28%. The single most likely score is 2–0. The final score was 1–1, 2 goals in all.
What time does FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin kicked off at 13:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
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