SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV preview

Hamburger SV were the visitors at SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. SC Paderborn 07 sit 12th in the table on 8 points from 7 games, while Hamburger SV are 10th with 9 points. Recent results matter here: SC Paderborn 07 have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WDLWL) and Hamburger SV have won three of their last five (LWWWL). In front of goal, SC Paderborn 07 score 0.9 and concede 1.3 a game on average; Hamburger SV score 0.9 and concede 2.3. On expected goals we have SC Paderborn 07 at 1.8 and Hamburger SV at 1.0, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 53%. We make SC Paderborn 07 55% to win, the draw 26% and Hamburger SV 19%. Our verdict is SC Paderborn 07 or draw: we rate it at 69%, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.