Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction

Bundesliga · Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Union Berlin

14:30

Kick-off (UTC)

1. FC Köln

Our verdict · Double chance

Union Berlin or draw

Our chance65%

Best price1.52

Fair odds1.53

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 65%; the best price of 1.52 implies 66%
Expected goals 1.8–1.1 (most likely score 1-1)
Last five: Union Berlin DDWLL, 1. FC Köln DLWLD
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 1.8 and 1.2 xG.

61%

@ 1.55

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Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln preview

Union Berlin host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga on Sunday 1 November. In the standings, 1. FC Köln are 11th on 8 points from 7 games and Union Berlin 17th on 6 points from 7 games. That puts 1. FC Köln six places higher. Both sides have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five: Union Berlin DDWLL and 1. FC Köln DLWLD. In front of goal, Union Berlin score 0.9 and concede 2.6 a game on average; 1. FC Köln score 1.1 and concede 1.6. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Union Berlin and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. We make Union Berlin 40% to win, the draw 26% and 1. FC Köln 35%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 39%, 26% and 37%. Our verdict is Union Berlin or draw: we rate it at 65%, against 66% implied by the best price of 1.52. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Union Berlin win	40%	2.58	39%	+3%
Draw	26%	3.84	26%	-2%
1. FC Köln win	35%	2.72	37%	-6%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.70	59%	-2%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.34	43%	-1%
Both teams to score	61%	1.55	65%	-6%
Not both to score	39%	2.42	41%	-5%
Union Berlin or draw	65%	1.52	66%	0%
1. FC Köln or draw	60%	1.57	64%	-6%
Either team to win	74%	1.31	76%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
Union Berlin	1.8
1. FC Köln	1.2
Total	3.0

Most likely scores	Chance
Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln	12%
Union Berlin 2–1 1. FC Köln	10%
Union Berlin 2–0 1. FC Köln	8%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
Union Berlin	17th	6	7
1. FC Köln	11th	8	7

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
Union Berlin	0.9	2.6
1. FC Köln	1.1	1.6

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.75 (57%)	2.02 (50%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: FAQ

Who will win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?

We make Union Berlin 40% to win, the draw 26% and 1. FC Köln 35%, so Union Berlin are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Union Berlin the shorter price. Our verdict is Union Berlin or draw at 65%.

Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?

We give both teams to score a 61% chance, against 65% implied by the best price of 1.55. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Union Berlin and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln.

How many goals in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?

Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 58% and under 2.5 at 42%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.70. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kick off?

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln kicks off at 14:30 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Bundesliga.