Birmingham vs Millwall prediction
Birmingham
MillwallNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 68%
- Expected goals 2.3–1.3, so 68% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Birmingham LWWWD, Millwall LDLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.3 and 1.3 xG.
Our model gives Birmingham the win 60%.
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Birmingham vs Millwall preview
Birmingham host Millwall in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November. Birmingham sit 7th in the table on 20 points from 12 games, while Millwall are 13th with 15 points. That puts Birmingham six places higher. On form, Birmingham have won three of their last five (LWWWD), while Millwall have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDLWD). Birmingham average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.6 and 1.7 for Millwall. Our model expects around 2.3 goals for Birmingham and 1.3 for Millwall, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Birmingham 60% to win, the draw 22% and Millwall 19%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 68%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 60% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 22% | – | – | – |
| Millwall win | 19% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 65% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 35% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham or draw | 81% | – | – | – |
| Millwall or draw | 40% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 78% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2.3 |
| Millwall | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Birmingham 2–1 Millwall | 10% |
| Birmingham 1–1 Millwall | 9% |
| Birmingham 2–0 Millwall | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Birmingham | |
| Millwall |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 7th | 20 | 12 |
| Millwall | 13th | 15 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Millwall | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Birmingham vs Millwall: FAQ
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
We make Birmingham 60% to win, the draw 22% and Millwall 19%, so Birmingham are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Millwall?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance. Our expected goals are 2.3 for Birmingham and 1.3 for Millwall.
How many goals in Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our model expects about 3.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and under 2.5 at 32%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Birmingham vs Millwall kick off?
Birmingham vs Millwall kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Championship.
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