Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction
Lincoln
BirminghamNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 53%
- Expected goals 1.0–1.6, so 47% for over 2.5 and 51% for both to score
- Last five: Lincoln WDLLL, Birmingham LWWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 77% combined.
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Lincoln vs Birmingham preview
Lincoln welcome Birmingham on Saturday 31 October in the Championship. Lincoln sit 15th in the table on 15 points from 12 games, while Birmingham are 7th with 20 points. That puts Birmingham eight places higher. Birmingham come into it having won three of their last five (LWWWD); Lincoln have lost three of their last five (WDLLL). Lincoln average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, compared with 1.7 and 1.0 for Birmingham. Our model expects around 1.0 goals for Lincoln and 1.6 for Birmingham, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. We make Lincoln 23% to win, the draw 28% and Birmingham 48%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 53%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 23% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 28% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham win | 48% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 49% | – | – | – |
| Lincoln or draw | 52% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham or draw | 77% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 72% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.0 |
| Birmingham | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham | 14% |
| Lincoln 0–1 Birmingham | 11% |
| Lincoln 1–2 Birmingham | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lincoln | |
| Birmingham |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 15th | 15 | 12 |
| Birmingham | 7th | 20 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Lincoln vs Birmingham: FAQ
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We make Lincoln 23% to win, the draw 28% and Birmingham 48%, so Birmingham are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We give both teams to score a 51% chance. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Lincoln and 1.6 for Birmingham.
How many goals in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our model expects about 2.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 47% and under 2.5 at 53%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lincoln vs Birmingham kick off?
Lincoln vs Birmingham kicks off at 12:30 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Championship.
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