Birmingham vs Swansea prediction
Birmingham
SwanseaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 2.0–1.3, so 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both to score
- Last five: Birmingham LWWWD, Swansea LLWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.1 and 1.3 xG.
Our model gives Birmingham the win 53%.
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Birmingham vs Swansea preview
Birmingham welcome Swansea on Saturday 7 November in the Championship. Birmingham sit 7th in the table on 20 points from 12 games, while Swansea are 2nd with 23 points. Both sides have won three of their last five: Birmingham LWWWD and Swansea LLWWW. In front of goal, Birmingham score 1.7 and concede 1.0 a game on average; Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.1. On expected goals we have Birmingham at 2.1 and Swansea at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Birmingham 53% to win, the draw 24% and Swansea 24%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 66%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 53% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – | – |
| Swansea win | 24% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 65% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 35% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham or draw | 76% | – | – | – |
| Swansea or draw | 47% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 76% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2.1 |
| Swansea | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–1 Swansea | 10% |
| Birmingham 2–1 Swansea | 10% |
| Birmingham 2–0 Swansea | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Birmingham | |
| Swansea |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 7th | 20 | 12 |
| Swansea | 2nd | 23 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Birmingham vs Swansea: FAQ
Who will win Birmingham vs Swansea?
We make Birmingham 53% to win, the draw 24% and Swansea 24%, so Birmingham are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance. Our expected goals are 2.1 for Birmingham and 1.3 for Swansea.
How many goals in Birmingham vs Swansea?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Birmingham vs Swansea kick off?
Birmingham vs Swansea kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Championship.
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