Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
Burnley
PortsmouthNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%
- Expected goals 1.1–1.3, so 43% for over 2.5 and 50% for both to score
- Last five: Burnley LLDWD, Portsmouth WDWWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 71% combined.
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Burnley vs Portsmouth preview
Burnley host Portsmouth in the Championship on Saturday 31 October. Burnley sit 22nd in the table on 8 points from 12 games, while Portsmouth are 11th with 18 points. That puts Portsmouth 11 places higher. Portsmouth come into it having won three of their last five (WDWWL); Burnley have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLDWD). In front of goal, Burnley score 1.4 and concede 2.1 a game on average; Portsmouth score 1.3 and concede 1.3. On expected goals we have Burnley at 1.1 and Portsmouth at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (15%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 50%. We make Burnley 29% to win, the draw 31% and Portsmouth 40%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 57%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 29% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 31% | – | – | – |
| Portsmouth win | 40% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 50% | – | – | – |
| Burnley or draw | 60% | – | – | – |
| Portsmouth or draw | 71% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 69% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.1 |
| Portsmouth | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Burnley 1–1 Portsmouth | 15% |
| Burnley 0–0 Portsmouth | 11% |
| Burnley 0–1 Portsmouth | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Burnley | |
| Portsmouth |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 22nd | 8 | 12 |
| Portsmouth | 11th | 18 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Burnley vs Portsmouth: FAQ
Who will win Burnley vs Portsmouth?
We make Burnley 29% to win, the draw 31% and Portsmouth 40%, so Portsmouth are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
We give both teams to score a 50% chance. Our expected goals are 1.1 for Burnley and 1.3 for Portsmouth.
How many goals in Burnley vs Portsmouth?
Our model expects about 2.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and under 2.5 at 57%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Burnley vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burnley vs Portsmouth kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Championship.
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