Cardiff vs Birmingham prediction
Cardiff
BirminghamResult: Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Lost |
| Cardiff or draw | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.0, so 43% for over 2.5 and 49% for both to score
- Last five: Cardiff WDWLW, Birmingham LWWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Cardiff vs Birmingham preview
Birmingham were the visitors at Cardiff in the Championship on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Cardiff sit 16th in the table on 14 points from 12 games, while Birmingham are 7th with 20 points. That puts Birmingham nine places higher. Both sides have won three of their last five: Cardiff WDWLW and Birmingham LWWWD. In front of goal, Cardiff score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Birmingham score 1.7 and concede 1.0.
On expected goals we have Cardiff at 1.4 and Birmingham at 1.0, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%). We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. We make Cardiff 45% to win, the draw 30% and Birmingham 25%. Our verdict is Cardiff or draw: we rate it at 62%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 45% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 30% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham win | 25% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 49% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 51% | – | – | – |
| Cardiff or draw | 75% | – | – | – |
| Birmingham or draw | 55% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 70% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.4 |
| Birmingham | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham | 14% |
| Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham | 11% |
| Cardiff 0–0 Birmingham | 11% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | |
| Birmingham |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 16th | 14 | 12 |
| Birmingham | 7th | 20 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Birmingham | 1.7 | 1.0 |
Cardiff vs Birmingham: FAQ
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
The match finished Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham. Before kick-off we made Cardiff 45% to win, the draw 30% and Birmingham 25%, so Cardiff were the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict was Cardiff or draw at 62%.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
We gave both teams to score a 49% chance. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Cardiff and 1.0 for Birmingham. In the end, both teams did not score.
How many goals in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our model expects about 2.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and under 2.5 at 57%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 1–0, 1 goal in all.
What time does Cardiff vs Birmingham kick off?
Cardiff vs Birmingham kicked off at 14:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Championship.
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