Cardiff vs Burnley prediction
Cardiff
BurnleyNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 72%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.2, so 72% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Cardiff WDWLW, Burnley LLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.5 and 1.2 xG.
Our model gives Cardiff the win 64%.
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Cardiff vs Burnley preview
Cardiff host Burnley in the Championship on Saturday 7 November. In the standings, Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 12 games and Cardiff 16th on 14 points from 12 games. That puts Cardiff six places higher. Recent results matter here: Cardiff have won three of their last five (WDWLW) and Burnley have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLDWD). In front of goal, Cardiff score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Burnley score 1.4 and concede 2.1. Our model expects around 2.5 goals for Cardiff and 1.2 for Burnley, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Cardiff 64% to win, the draw 20% and Burnley 16%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 72%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 64% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 20% | – | – | – |
| Burnley win | 16% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 66% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| Cardiff or draw | 84% | – | – | – |
| Burnley or draw | 36% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 80% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.5 |
| Burnley | 1.2 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cardiff 2–1 Burnley | 9% |
| Cardiff 1–1 Burnley | 8% |
| Cardiff 3–1 Burnley | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Cardiff | |
| Burnley |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 16th | 14 | 12 |
| Burnley | 22nd | 8 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Burnley | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Cardiff vs Burnley: FAQ
Who will win Cardiff vs Burnley?
We make Cardiff 64% to win, the draw 20% and Burnley 16%, so Cardiff are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Cardiff and 1.2 for Burnley.
How many goals in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and under 2.5 at 28%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Cardiff vs Burnley kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Championship.
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