Derby vs Bolton prediction
Derby
BoltonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 57%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.6, so 53% for over 2.5 and 57% for both to score
- Last five: Derby DLLDD, Bolton LDWLW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
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Derby vs Bolton preview
Derby welcome Bolton on Friday 6 November in the Championship. Derby sit 23rd in the table on 7 points from 12 games, while Bolton are 18th with 14 points. Recent results matter here: Derby have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLLDD) and Bolton have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LDWLW). Derby average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 1.9 for Bolton. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Derby and 1.6 for Bolton, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. We make Derby 26% to win, the draw 27% and Bolton 46%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 57%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 26% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 27% | – | – | – |
| Bolton win | 46% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 43% | – | – | – |
| Derby or draw | 54% | – | – | – |
| Bolton or draw | 74% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 73% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Derby | 1.2 |
| Bolton | 1.6 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Derby 1–1 Bolton | 13% |
| Derby 1–2 Bolton | 9% |
| Derby 0–1 Bolton | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Derby | |
| Bolton |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 23rd | 7 | 12 |
| Bolton | 18th | 14 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Bolton | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Derby vs Bolton: FAQ
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
We make Derby 26% to win, the draw 27% and Bolton 46%, so Bolton are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 57%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
We give both teams to score a 57% chance. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Derby and 1.6 for Bolton.
How many goals in Derby vs Bolton?
Our model expects about 2.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and under 2.5 at 47%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Friday 6 November 2026, in the Championship.
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