Derby vs Norwich prediction
Derby
NorwichNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.7, so 57% for over 2.5 and 60% for both to score
- Last five: Derby DLLDD, Norwich WLLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 74% combined.
Expected goals 1.2–1.7, 3.0 in total.
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Derby vs Norwich preview
Derby welcome Norwich on Tuesday 3 November in the Championship. Derby sit 23rd in the table on 7 points from 12 games, while Norwich are 20th with 12 points. On form, Derby have not won any of their last five (three draws, two defeats) (DLLDD), while Norwich have lost four of their last five (WLLLL). Derby average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, compared with 1.7 and 1.8 for Norwich. Our model expects around 1.2 goals for Derby and 1.7 for Norwich, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. We make Derby 26% to win, the draw 26% and Norwich 48%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 60%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 26% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 26% | – | – | – |
| Norwich win | 48% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 60% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 40% | – | – | – |
| Derby or draw | 52% | – | – | – |
| Norwich or draw | 74% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 74% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Derby | 1.2 |
| Norwich | 1.7 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Derby 1–1 Norwich | 12% |
| Derby 1–2 Norwich | 10% |
| Derby 0–2 Norwich | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Derby | |
| Norwich |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 23rd | 7 | 12 |
| Norwich | 20th | 12 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Norwich | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Derby vs Norwich: FAQ
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
We make Derby 26% to win, the draw 26% and Norwich 48%, so Norwich are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 60%.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Norwich?
We give both teams to score a 60% chance. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Derby and 1.7 for Norwich.
How many goals in Derby vs Norwich?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and under 2.5 at 43%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Derby vs Norwich kick off?
Derby vs Norwich kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Championship.
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