Lincoln vs Burnley prediction
Lincoln
BurnleyResult: Lincoln 4–1 Burnley
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Burnley or draw | Lost |
| Both teams to score | Won |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 72%
- Expected goals 1.8–1.9, so 72% for over 2.5 and 72% for both to score
- Last five: Lincoln WDLLL, Burnley LLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Lincoln vs Burnley preview
Lincoln hosted Burnley in the Championship on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 12 games and Lincoln 15th on 15 points from 12 games. That puts Lincoln seven places higher. Recent results matter here: Lincoln have lost three of their last five (WDLLL) and Burnley have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLDWD). In front of goal, Lincoln score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Burnley score 1.4 and concede 2.1.
Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Lincoln and 1.9 for Burnley, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. We make Lincoln 35% to win, the draw 24% and Burnley 41%. Our verdict is Burnley or draw: we rate it at 67%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.47. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 35% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – | – |
| Burnley win | 41% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 72% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 28% | – | – | – |
| Lincoln or draw | 59% | – | – | – |
| Burnley or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 76% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.8 |
| Burnley | 1.9 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lincoln 1–1 Burnley | 9% |
| Lincoln 1–2 Burnley | 8% |
| Lincoln 2–1 Burnley | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lincoln | |
| Burnley |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 15th | 15 | 12 |
| Burnley | 22nd | 8 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Burnley | 1.4 | 2.1 |
Lincoln vs Burnley: FAQ
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
The match finished Lincoln 4–1 Burnley. Before kick-off we made Lincoln 35% to win, the draw 24% and Burnley 41%, so Burnley were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Burnley or draw at 67%.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burnley?
We gave both teams to score a 72% chance. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Lincoln and 1.9 for Burnley. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in Lincoln vs Burnley?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and under 2.5 at 28%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 4–1, 5 goals in all.
What time does Lincoln vs Burnley kick off?
Lincoln vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Championship.
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