Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction
Portsmouth
MillwallResult: Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Millwall or draw | Lost |
| Both teams to score | Won |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 67%
- Expected goals 1.9–1.5, so 66% for over 2.5 and 67% for both to score
- Last five: Portsmouth WDWWL, Millwall LDLWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Portsmouth vs Millwall preview
This Championship match between Portsmouth and Millwall was played on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. In the standings, Millwall are 13th on 15 points from 12 games and Portsmouth 11th on 18 points from 12 games. Millwall come into it having picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LDLWD); Portsmouth have won three of their last five (WDWWL). Portsmouth average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.6 and 1.7 for Millwall. On expected goals we have Portsmouth at 1.9 and Millwall at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. We make Portsmouth 45% to win, the draw 25% and Millwall 31%. Our verdict is Millwall or draw: we rate it at 60%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 45% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Millwall win | 31% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 67% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 33% | – | – | – |
| Portsmouth or draw | 69% | – | – | – |
| Millwall or draw | 55% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.9 |
| Millwall | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall | 11% |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall | 9% |
| Portsmouth 1–2 Millwall | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth | |
| Millwall |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 11th | 18 | 12 |
| Millwall | 13th | 15 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Millwall | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Portsmouth vs Millwall: FAQ
Who will win Portsmouth vs Millwall?
The match finished Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall. Before kick-off we made Portsmouth 45% to win, the draw 25% and Millwall 31%, so Portsmouth were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Millwall or draw at 60%.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
We gave both teams to score a 67% chance. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Portsmouth and 1.5 for Millwall. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 2–1, 3 goals in all.
What time does Portsmouth vs Millwall kick off?
Portsmouth vs Millwall kicked off at 11:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Championship.
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