Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction
Portsmouth
SwanseaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 1.7–1.6, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Portsmouth WDWWL, Swansea LLWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.7–1.6, 3.3 in total.
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 64% combined.
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Portsmouth vs Swansea preview
Championship action on Tuesday 3 November sees Swansea travel to face Portsmouth. In the standings, Swansea are 2nd on 23 points from 12 games and Portsmouth 11th on 18 points from 12 games. That puts Swansea nine places higher. Both sides have won three of their last five: Portsmouth WDWWL and Swansea LLWWW. In front of goal, Portsmouth score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game on average; Swansea score 1.3 and concede 1.1. On expected goals we have Portsmouth at 1.7 and Swansea at 1.6, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 67%. We make Portsmouth 38% to win, the draw 25% and Swansea 36%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 67%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 38% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Swansea win | 36% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 67% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| Portsmouth or draw | 64% | – | – | – |
| Swansea or draw | 62% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.7 |
| Swansea | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth 1–1 Swansea | 11% |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Swansea | 8% |
| Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth | |
| Swansea |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 11th | 18 | 12 |
| Swansea | 2nd | 23 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Swansea | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Portsmouth vs Swansea: FAQ
Who will win Portsmouth vs Swansea?
We make Portsmouth 38% to win, the draw 25% and Swansea 36%, so Portsmouth are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 67%.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
We give both teams to score a 67% chance. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Portsmouth and 1.6 for Swansea.
How many goals in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Portsmouth vs Swansea kick off?
Portsmouth vs Swansea kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Championship.
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