QPR vs Burnley prediction
QPR
BurnleyNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 70%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.1, so 70% for over 2.5 and 63% for both to score
- Last five: QPR WLWDD, Burnley LLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives QPR the win 66%.
Both sides expected to score: 2.5 and 1.1 xG.
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QPR vs Burnley preview
Championship action on Tuesday 3 November sees Burnley travel to face QPR. In the standings, Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 12 games and QPR 8th on 20 points from 12 games. That puts QPR 14 places higher. Recent results matter here: QPR have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WLWDD) and Burnley have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLDWD). QPR average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.4 and 2.1 for Burnley. Our model expects around 2.5 goals for QPR and 1.1 for Burnley, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 63%. We make QPR 66% to win, the draw 19% and Burnley 15%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 70%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 66% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 19% | – | – | – |
| Burnley win | 15% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 63% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 37% | – | – | – |
| QPR or draw | 85% | – | – | – |
| Burnley or draw | 34% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 81% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| QPR | 2.5 |
| Burnley | 1.1 |
| Total | 3.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| QPR 2–1 Burnley | 9% |
| QPR 1–1 Burnley | 8% |
| QPR 2–0 Burnley | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| QPR | |
| Burnley |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 8th | 20 | 12 |
| Burnley | 22nd | 8 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| QPR | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Burnley | 1.4 | 2.1 |
QPR vs Burnley: FAQ
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
We make QPR 66% to win, the draw 19% and Burnley 15%, so QPR are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Burnley?
We give both teams to score a 63% chance. Our expected goals are 2.5 for QPR and 1.1 for Burnley.
How many goals in QPR vs Burnley?
Our model expects about 3.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 70% and under 2.5 at 30%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does QPR vs Burnley kick off?
QPR vs Burnley kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Championship.
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