Watford vs Lincoln prediction
Watford
LincolnNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 55%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.2, so 45% for over 2.5 and 52% for both to score
- Last five: Watford LWLLL, Lincoln WDLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 65% combined.
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Watford vs Lincoln preview
Watford host Lincoln in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November. In the standings, Lincoln are 15th on 15 points from 12 games and Watford 21st on 11 points from 12 games. That puts Lincoln six places higher. Lincoln come into it having lost three of their last five (WDLLL); Watford have lost four of their last five (LWLLL). In front of goal, Watford score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Lincoln score 1.1 and concede 1.7. On expected goals we have Watford at 1.2 and Lincoln at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (14%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 52%. We make Watford 35% to win, the draw 30% and Lincoln 35%. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals: we rate it at 55%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 35% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 30% | – | – | – |
| Lincoln win | 35% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 48% | – | – | – |
| Watford or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Lincoln or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 70% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Watford | 1.2 |
| Lincoln | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Watford 1–1 Lincoln | 14% |
| Watford 0–0 Lincoln | 10% |
| Watford 1–0 Lincoln | 9% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Watford | |
| Lincoln |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 21st | 11 | 12 |
| Lincoln | 15th | 15 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Lincoln | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Watford vs Lincoln: FAQ
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln?
We make Watford 35% to win, the draw 30% and Lincoln 35%, so Watford are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Under 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Lincoln?
We give both teams to score a 52% chance. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Watford and 1.2 for Lincoln.
How many goals in Watford vs Lincoln?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 45% and under 2.5 at 55%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Watford vs Lincoln kick off?
Watford vs Lincoln kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Championship.
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