Watford vs Middlesbrough prediction
Watford
MiddlesbroughNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%
- Expected goals 1.3–1.9, so 63% for over 2.5 and 64% for both to score
- Last five: Watford LWLLL, Middlesbrough WDWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.3–1.9, 3.3 in total.
Our model gives Middlesbrough the win 50%.
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Watford vs Middlesbrough preview
Watford host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Saturday 7 November. In the standings, Middlesbrough are 1st on 25 points from 12 games and Watford 21st on 11 points from 12 games. That puts Middlesbrough 20 places higher. On form, Watford have lost four of their last five (LWLLL), while Middlesbrough have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDWWD). In front of goal, Watford score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game on average; Middlesbrough score 2.3 and concede 1.4. On expected goals we have Watford at 1.3 and Middlesbrough at 1.9, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. We make Watford 25% to win, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 50%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 64%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 25% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough win | 50% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 64% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 36% | – | – | – |
| Watford or draw | 50% | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough or draw | 75% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Watford | 1.3 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Watford 1–1 Middlesbrough | 11% |
| Watford 1–2 Middlesbrough | 10% |
| Watford 0–2 Middlesbrough | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Watford | |
| Middlesbrough |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 21st | 11 | 12 |
| Middlesbrough | 1st | 25 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Watford | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Middlesbrough | 2.3 | 1.4 |
Watford vs Middlesbrough: FAQ
Who will win Watford vs Middlesbrough?
We make Watford 25% to win, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 50%, so Middlesbrough are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 64%.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Middlesbrough?
We give both teams to score a 64% chance. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Watford and 1.9 for Middlesbrough.
How many goals in Watford vs Middlesbrough?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 63% and under 2.5 at 37%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Watford vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Watford vs Middlesbrough kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Championship.
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