West Ham vs Southampton prediction
West Ham
SouthamptonResult: West Ham 2–3 Southampton
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Won |
| Both teams to score | Won |
| West Ham to win | Lost |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 2.1–1.3, so 66% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: West Ham LWWDD, Southampton WDWWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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West Ham vs Southampton preview
This Championship match between West Ham and Southampton was played on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. West Ham sit 3rd in the table on 22 points from 12 games, while Southampton are 6th with 20 points. Recent results matter here: West Ham have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (LWWDD) and Southampton have won three of their last five (WDWWL). West Ham average 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 2.0 and 1.0 for Southampton. On expected goals we have West Ham at 2.1 and Southampton at 1.3, with 1–1 the most likely score (10%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 66%. We make West Ham 53% to win, the draw 23% and Southampton 23%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 63%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 53% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – | – |
| Southampton win | 23% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 66% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| West Ham or draw | 77% | – | – | – |
| Southampton or draw | 47% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 77% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| West Ham | 2.1 |
| Southampton | 1.3 |
| Total | 3.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| West Ham 1–1 Southampton | 10% |
| West Ham 2–1 Southampton | 9% |
| West Ham 2–0 Southampton | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| West Ham | |
| Southampton |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 3rd | 22 | 12 |
| Southampton | 6th | 20 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.0 |
West Ham vs Southampton: FAQ
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
The match finished West Ham 2–3 Southampton. Before kick-off we made West Ham 53% to win, the draw 23% and Southampton 23%, so West Ham were the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict was Over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Southampton?
We gave both teams to score a 66% chance. Our expected goals are 2.1 for West Ham and 1.3 for Southampton. In the end, both teams did score.
How many goals in West Ham vs Southampton?
Our model expects about 3.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 66% and under 2.5 at 34%. The single most likely score is 1–1. The final score was 2–3, 5 goals in all.
What time does West Ham vs Southampton kick off?
West Ham vs Southampton kicked off at 14:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Championship.
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