Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction
Wrexham
MiddlesbroughNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 1.5–1.8, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: Wrexham LWLDW, Middlesbrough WDWWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 69% combined.
Expected goals 1.5–1.8, 3.3 in total.
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Wrexham vs Middlesbrough preview
Championship action on Wednesday 4 November sees Middlesbrough travel to face Wrexham. Wrexham sit 17th in the table on 14 points from 12 games, while Middlesbrough are 1st with 25 points. That puts Middlesbrough 16 places higher. Middlesbrough come into it having gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDWWD); Wrexham have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LWLDW). Wrexham average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, compared with 2.3 and 1.4 for Middlesbrough. Our model expects around 1.5 goals for Wrexham and 1.8 for Middlesbrough, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make Wrexham 31% to win, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 44%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 66%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 31% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough win | 44% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 66% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| Wrexham or draw | 56% | – | – | – |
| Middlesbrough or draw | 69% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1.5 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.8 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wrexham 1–1 Middlesbrough | 11% |
| Wrexham 1–2 Middlesbrough | 9% |
| Wrexham 2–1 Middlesbrough | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Wrexham | |
| Middlesbrough |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 17th | 14 | 12 |
| Middlesbrough | 1st | 25 | 12 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Middlesbrough | 2.3 | 1.4 |
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: FAQ
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
We make Wrexham 31% to win, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 44%, so Middlesbrough are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 66%.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance. Our expected goals are 1.5 for Wrexham and 1.8 for Middlesbrough.
How many goals in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Wrexham vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in the Championship.
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