Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction
Sevilla
OsasunaValue · +9% edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 49%; the best price of 2.23 implies 45%
- Expected goals 2.3–1.6, so 49% for over 2.5 and 52% for both to score
- Last five: Sevilla LDLWW, Osasuna WLDLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Sevilla vs Osasuna preview
Sevilla welcome Osasuna on Monday 26 October in La Liga. Sevilla sit 6th in the table on 14 points from 9 games, while Osasuna are 11th with 11 points. On form, Sevilla have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (LDLWW), while Osasuna have lost three of their last five (WLDLL). In front of goal, Sevilla score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game on average; Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 2.0. On expected goals we have Sevilla at 2.3 and Osasuna at 1.6, with 2–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%. We make Sevilla 50% to win, the draw 26% and Osasuna 23%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 50%, 28% and 22%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 49%, against 45% implied by the best price of 2.23. That gap is where the value lies: an edge of about 9% at the current price, which can disappear if the odds shorten. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 50% | 2.02 | 50% | +2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 | 28% | -5% |
| Osasuna win | 23% | 4.50 | 22% | +4% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.23 | 45% | +9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.79 | 56% | -9% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.95 | 51% | +2% |
| Not both to score | 48% | 1.85 | 54% | -12% |
| Sevilla or draw | 77% | 1.28 | 78% | -2% |
| Osasuna or draw | 50% | 1.91 | 52% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.34 | 75% | -1% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sevilla | 2.3 |
| Osasuna | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sevilla 2–1 Osasuna | 9% |
| Sevilla 1–1 Osasuna | 8% |
| Sevilla 2–2 Osasuna | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sevilla | |
| Osasuna |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 6th | 14 | 9 |
| Osasuna | 11th | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 2.0 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.55 (39%) | 1.61 (62%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.27 (79%) | 3.55 (28%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: FAQ
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
We make Sevilla 50% to win, the draw 26% and Osasuna 23%, so Sevilla are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Sevilla the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
We give both teams to score a 52% chance, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.95. Our expected goals are 2.3 for Sevilla and 1.6 for Osasuna.
How many goals in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model expects about 3.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 49% and under 2.5 at 51%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.23. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Monday 26 October 2026, in La Liga.
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