Fulham vs Newcastle prediction
Fulham
NewcastleNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%; the best price of 1.57 implies 64%
- Expected goals 1.7–1.6, so 57% for over 2.5 and 62% for both to score
- Last five: Fulham WWLDD, Newcastle WLLWL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 69% combined.
Expected goals 1.7–1.6, 3.3 in total.
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Fulham vs Newcastle preview
Premier League action on Saturday 7 November sees Newcastle travel to face Fulham. Fulham sit 15th in the table on 8 points from 8 games, while Newcastle are 8th with 11 points. That puts Newcastle seven places higher. Recent results matter here: Fulham have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WWLDD) and Newcastle have lost three of their last five (WLLWL). Fulham average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.5 and 1.8 for Newcastle. On expected goals we have Fulham at 1.7 and Newcastle at 1.6, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 62%. We make Fulham 43% to win, the draw 26% and Newcastle 31%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 44%, 26% and 31%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 62%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 43% | 2.27 | 44% | -2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | 26% | -1% |
| Newcastle win | 31% | 3.22 | 31% | +0% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 | 57% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.27 | 44% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 1.57 | 64% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 38% | 2.45 | 41% | -6% |
| Fulham or draw | 69% | 1.40 | 71% | -4% |
| Newcastle or draw | 57% | 1.72 | 58% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Fulham | 1.7 |
| Newcastle | 1.6 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fulham 1–1 Newcastle | 11% |
| Fulham 2–1 Newcastle | 9% |
| Fulham 1–2 Newcastle | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Fulham | |
| Newcastle |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 15th | 8 | 8 |
| Newcastle | 8th | 11 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Newcastle | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Fulham vs Newcastle: FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Newcastle?
We make Fulham 43% to win, the draw 26% and Newcastle 31%, so Fulham are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Fulham the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 62%.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
We give both teams to score a 62% chance, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Fulham and 1.6 for Newcastle.
How many goals in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and under 2.5 at 43%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.74. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Fulham vs Newcastle kick off?
Fulham vs Newcastle kicks off at 15:00 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Premier League.
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