Newcastle vs Everton prediction
Newcastle
EvertonNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 59%; the best price of 1.60 implies 63%
- Expected goals 1.4–1.1, so 55% for over 2.5 and 59% for both to score
- Last five: Newcastle WLLWL, Everton LLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 70% combined.
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Newcastle vs Everton preview
Newcastle host Everton in the Premier League on Monday 2 November. Newcastle sit 8th in the table on 11 points from 8 games, while Everton are 11th with 10 points. Recent results matter here: Newcastle have lost three of their last five (WLLWL) and Everton have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LLDWD). Newcastle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, compared with 1.0 and 1.1 for Everton. Our model expects around 1.4 goals for Newcastle and 1.1 for Everton, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. We make Newcastle 43% to win, the draw 26% and Everton 30%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 44%, 26% and 31%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 59%, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 43% | 2.26 | 44% | -2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | 26% | 0% |
| Everton win | 30% | 3.24 | 31% | -2% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.76 | 57% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 45% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 1.60 | 63% | -6% |
| Not both to score | 41% | 2.38 | 42% | -2% |
| Newcastle or draw | 70% | 1.40 | 71% | -2% |
| Everton or draw | 57% | 1.71 | 58% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 74% | 1.31 | 76% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.4 |
| Everton | 1.1 |
| Total | 2.5 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 1–1 Everton | 14% |
| Newcastle 1–0 Everton | 10% |
| Newcastle 0–0 Everton | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | |
| Everton |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 8th | 11 | 8 |
| Everton | 11th | 10 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Everton | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Newcastle vs Everton: FAQ
Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?
We make Newcastle 43% to win, the draw 26% and Everton 30%, so Newcastle are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Newcastle the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 59%.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
We give both teams to score a 59% chance, against 63% implied by the best price of 1.60. Our expected goals are 1.4 for Newcastle and 1.1 for Everton.
How many goals in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 55% and under 2.5 at 45%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.76. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026, in the Premier League.
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