Sunderland vs Leeds prediction
Sunderland
LeedsNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 62%; the best price of 1.57 implies 64%
- Expected goals 1.0–1.2 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Sunderland LLLLD, Leeds DLDWD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Sunderland vs Leeds preview
Premier League action on Sunday 25 October sees Leeds travel to face Sunderland. Sunderland sit 20th in the table on 4 points from 7 games, while Leeds are 8th with 10 points. That puts Leeds 12 places higher. Leeds come into it having picked up one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five (DLDWD); Sunderland have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLLD). Sunderland average 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, compared with 1.3 and 0.9 for Leeds. On expected goals we have Sunderland at 1.0 and Leeds at 1.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (15%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. We make Sunderland 31% to win, the draw 31% and Leeds 38%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 32%, 30% and 39%. Our verdict is Sunderland or draw: we rate it at 62%, against 64% implied by the best price of 1.57. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 31% | 3.08 | 32% | -4% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.30 | 30% | +1% |
| Leeds win | 38% | 2.58 | 39% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.17 | 46% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.81 | 55% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 1.87 | 53% | -8% |
| Not both to score | 51% | 1.95 | 51% | -1% |
| Sunderland or draw | 62% | 1.57 | 64% | -3% |
| Leeds or draw | 69% | 1.44 | 69% | -1% |
| Either team to win | 70% | 1.38 | 72% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.0 |
| Leeds | 1.2 |
| Total | 2.2 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sunderland 1–1 Leeds | 15% |
| Sunderland 0–0 Leeds | 13% |
| Sunderland 0–1 Leeds | 12% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sunderland | |
| Leeds |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 20th | 4 | 7 |
| Leeds | 8th | 10 | 7 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Leeds | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.12 (47%) | 1.82 (55%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 1.46 (68%) | 2.60 (38%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Sunderland vs Leeds: FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
We make Sunderland 31% to win, the draw 31% and Leeds 38%, so Leeds are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with Leeds the shorter price. Our verdict is Sunderland or draw at 62%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds?
We give both teams to score a 49% chance, against 53% implied by the best price of 1.87. Our expected goals are 1.0 for Sunderland and 1.2 for Leeds.
How many goals in Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our model expects about 2.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 43% and under 2.5 at 57%; the best over 2.5 price is 2.17. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Sunderland vs Leeds kick off?
Sunderland vs Leeds kicks off at 16:30 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Premier League.
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