Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Alverca
AroucaResult: Alverca 0–1 Arouca
| Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Arouca or draw | Won |
Settled on our public track record.
No value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 69%
- Expected goals 0.9–1.0, so 31% for over 2.5 and 40% for both to score
- Last five: Alverca LWWWL, Arouca WWDLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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Alverca vs Arouca preview
Alverca hosted Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. Alverca sit 8th in the table on 11 points from 9 games, while Arouca are 5th with 17 points. On form, Alverca have won three of their last five (LWWWL), while Arouca have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WWDLD). In front of goal, Alverca score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game on average; Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.8. Our model expects around 0.9 goals for Alverca and 1.0 for Arouca, and 0–0 is the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 40%. We make Alverca 30% to win, the draw 34% and Arouca 35%. Our verdict is Arouca or draw: we rate it at 56%, against 56% implied by the best price of 1.78. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca win | 30% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 34% | – | – | – |
| Arouca win | 35% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 69% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 40% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 60% | – | – | – |
| Alverca or draw | 65% | – | – | – |
| Arouca or draw | 70% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 66% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Alverca | 0.9 |
| Arouca | 1.0 |
| Total | 2.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alverca 0–0 Arouca | 16% |
| Alverca 1–1 Arouca | 15% |
| Alverca 0–1 Arouca | 13% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Alverca | |
| Arouca |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 8th | 11 | 9 |
| Arouca | 5th | 17 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Arouca | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Alverca vs Arouca: FAQ
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
The match finished Alverca 0–1 Arouca. Before kick-off we made Alverca 30% to win, the draw 34% and Arouca 35%, so Arouca were the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict was Arouca or draw at 56%.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Arouca?
We gave both teams to score a 40% chance. Our expected goals are 0.9 for Alverca and 1.0 for Arouca. In the end, both teams did not score.
How many goals in Alverca vs Arouca?
Our model expects about 2.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 31% and under 2.5 at 69%. The single most likely score is 0–0. The final score was 0–1, 1 goal in all.
What time does Alverca vs Arouca kick off?
Alverca vs Arouca kicked off at 17:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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