Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction
Santa Clara
BenficaNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 53%; the best price of 1.89 implies 53%
- Expected goals 1.2–1.8, so 53% for over 2.5 and 46% for both to score
- Last five: Santa Clara WDWWD, Benfica WLWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives Benfica the win 67%.
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Santa Clara vs Benfica preview
Santa Clara welcome Benfica on Monday 26 October in the Primeira Liga. In the standings, Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games and Santa Clara 4th on 18 points from 8 games. On form, Santa Clara have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDWWD), while Benfica have won four of their last five (WLWWW). Santa Clara average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, compared with 3.0 and 0.9 for Benfica. On expected goals we have Santa Clara at 1.2 and Benfica at 1.8, with 1–1 the most likely score (12%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 46%. We make Santa Clara 12% to win, the draw 20% and Benfica 67%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 10%, 20% and 72%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 53%, against 53% implied by the best price of 1.89. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 12% | 9.75 | 10% | +20% |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 | 20% | +2% |
| Benfica win | 67% | 1.38 | 72% | -7% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 53% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 1.99 | 50% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 2.15 | 47% | -1% |
| Not both to score | 54% | 1.67 | 60% | -10% |
| Santa Clara or draw | 33% | 3.24 | 31% | +6% |
| Benfica or draw | 88% | 1.09 | 92% | -4% |
| Either team to win | 80% | 1.20 | 83% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.2 |
| Benfica | 1.8 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara 1–1 Benfica | 12% |
| Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica | 10% |
| Santa Clara 0–2 Benfica | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Santa Clara | |
| Benfica |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 4th | 18 | 8 |
| Benfica | 2nd | 19 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Benfica | 3.0 | 0.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 2.02 (50%) | 1.96 (51%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Santa Clara vs Benfica: FAQ
Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?
We make Santa Clara 12% to win, the draw 20% and Benfica 67%, so Benfica are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Benfica the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
We give both teams to score a 46% chance, against 47% implied by the best price of 2.15. Our expected goals are 1.2 for Santa Clara and 1.8 for Benfica.
How many goals in Santa Clara vs Benfica?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 53% and under 2.5 at 47%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.89. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Santa Clara vs Benfica kick off?
Santa Clara vs Benfica kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Monday 26 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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