Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Arouca
NacionalNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 60%
- Expected goals 2.0–1.0 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Arouca WWDLD, Nacional LLLLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.0 and 1.0 xG.
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Arouca vs Nacional preview
Arouca host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 1 November. In the standings, Nacional are 17th on 4 points from 8 games and Arouca 5th on 17 points from 9 games. That puts Arouca 12 places higher. Recent results matter here: Arouca have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (WWDLD) and Nacional have lost each of their last five (LLLLL). In front of goal, Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game on average; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 2.3. Our model expects around 2.0 goals for Arouca and 1.0 for Nacional, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 55%. We make Arouca 60% to win, the draw 24% and Nacional 17%. Our verdict is Arouca to win: we rate it at 60%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca win | 60% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 24% | – | – | – |
| Nacional win | 17% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 45% | – | – | – |
| Arouca or draw | 83% | – | – | – |
| Nacional or draw | 40% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 76% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Arouca | 2.0 |
| Nacional | 1.0 |
| Total | 3.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Arouca 1–1 Nacional | 11% |
| Arouca 2–0 Nacional | 10% |
| Arouca 2–1 Nacional | 10% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Arouca | |
| Nacional |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 5th | 17 | 9 |
| Nacional | 17th | 4 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Arouca vs Nacional: FAQ
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
We make Arouca 60% to win, the draw 24% and Nacional 17%, so Arouca are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Arouca to win at 60%.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Nacional?
We give both teams to score a 55% chance. Our expected goals are 2.0 for Arouca and 1.0 for Nacional.
How many goals in Arouca vs Nacional?
Our model expects about 3.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 57% and under 2.5 at 43%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Arouca vs Nacional kick off?
Arouca vs Nacional kicks off at 15:30 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
Estoril
Moreirense
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Sporting CP
Academico Viseu
Santa Clara
Benfica
Casa Pia