Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction
Casa Pia
Sporting CPNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 81%
- Expected goals 0.8–3.0 (most likely score 0-2)
- Last five: Casa Pia WLWLD, Sporting CP WDDWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 0.8–3.0, 3.7 in total.
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Casa Pia vs Sporting CP preview
Primeira Liga action on Friday 30 October sees Sporting CP travel to face Casa Pia. Casa Pia sit 16th in the table on 7 points from 9 games, while Sporting CP are 3rd with 18 points. That puts Sporting CP 13 places higher. Sporting CP come into it having gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDDWW); Casa Pia have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLWLD). Casa Pia average 0.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, compared with 2.5 and 1.1 for Sporting CP. On expected goals we have Casa Pia at 0.8 and Sporting CP at 3.0, with 0–2 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 51%. We make Casa Pia 6% to win, the draw 13% and Sporting CP 81%. Our verdict is Sporting CP to win: we rate it at 81%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 6% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 13% | – | – | – |
| Sporting CP win | 81% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 49% | – | – | – |
| Casa Pia or draw | 19% | – | – | – |
| Sporting CP or draw | 94% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 87% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.8 |
| Sporting CP | 3.0 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP | 11% |
| Casa Pia 0–3 Sporting CP | 11% |
| Casa Pia 1–2 Sporting CP | 8% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia | |
| Sporting CP |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 16th | 7 | 9 |
| Sporting CP | 3rd | 18 | 8 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Sporting CP | 2.5 | 1.1 |
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP: FAQ
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We make Casa Pia 6% to win, the draw 13% and Sporting CP 81%, so Sporting CP are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Sporting CP to win at 81%.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
We give both teams to score a 51% chance. Our expected goals are 0.8 for Casa Pia and 3.0 for Sporting CP.
How many goals in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 72% and under 2.5 at 28%. The single most likely score is 0–2.
What time does Casa Pia vs Sporting CP kick off?
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP kicks off at 20:15 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026, in the Primeira Liga.
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