Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction
Atletico Madrid
Bayern MünchenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 76%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.5, so 76% for over 2.5 and 73% for both to score
- Last five: Atletico Madrid DWL, Bayern München DDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.5 and 1.5 xG.
Our model gives Atletico Madrid the win 58%.
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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München preview
Atletico Madrid host Bayern München in the Champions League on Tuesday 3 November. In the standings, Bayern München are 14th on 5 points from 3 games and Atletico Madrid 16th on 4 points from 3 games. Bayern München come into it having gone unbeaten in their last three, with one win and two draws (DDW); Atletico Madrid have picked up one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three (DWL). Atletico Madrid average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, compared with 3.3 and 1.7 for Bayern München. On expected goals we have Atletico Madrid at 2.5 and Bayern München at 1.5, with 2–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 73%. We make Atletico Madrid 58% to win, the draw 20% and Bayern München 22%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 76%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 58% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 20% | – | – | – |
| Bayern München win | 22% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 73% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 27% | – | – | – |
| Atletico Madrid or draw | 78% | – | – | – |
| Bayern München or draw | 42% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 80% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 2.5 |
| Bayern München | 1.5 |
| Total | 4.0 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 2–1 Bayern München | 9% |
| Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern München | 8% |
| Atletico Madrid 3–1 Bayern München | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | |
| Bayern München |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 16th | 4 | 3 |
| Bayern München | 14th | 5 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Bayern München | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München: FAQ
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
We make Atletico Madrid 58% to win, the draw 20% and Bayern München 22%, so Atletico Madrid are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
We give both teams to score a 73% chance. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Atletico Madrid and 1.5 for Bayern München.
How many goals in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
Our model expects about 4.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 76% and under 2.5 at 24%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Champions League.
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