FC Porto vs Napoli prediction
FC Porto
NapoliNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 66%
- Expected goals 1.9–1.5, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: FC Porto LLL, Napoli WLL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 70% combined.
Expected goals 1.9–1.5, 3.3 in total.
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FC Porto vs Napoli preview
FC Porto host Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November. In the standings, Napoli are 22nd on 3 points from 3 games and FC Porto 34th on 0 points from 3 games. That puts Napoli 12 places higher. Napoli come into it having picked up one win, no draws and two defeats in their last three (WLL); FC Porto have lost each of their last three (LLL). In front of goal, FC Porto score 0.7 and concede 2.0 a game on average; Napoli score 1.7 and concede 2.3. On expected goals we have FC Porto at 1.9 and Napoli at 1.5, with 1–1 the most likely score (11%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make FC Porto 45% to win, the draw 25% and Napoli 30%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 66%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 45% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – | – |
| Napoli win | 30% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 66% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 34% | – | – | – |
| FC Porto or draw | 70% | – | – | – |
| Napoli or draw | 55% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.9 |
| Napoli | 1.5 |
| Total | 3.3 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| FC Porto 1–1 Napoli | 11% |
| FC Porto 2–1 Napoli | 9% |
| FC Porto 1–2 Napoli | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| FC Porto | |
| Napoli |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 34th | 0 | 3 |
| Napoli | 22nd | 3 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Napoli | 1.7 | 2.3 |
FC Porto vs Napoli: FAQ
Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?
We make FC Porto 45% to win, the draw 25% and Napoli 30%, so FC Porto are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 66%.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Napoli?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance. Our expected goals are 1.9 for FC Porto and 1.5 for Napoli.
How many goals in FC Porto vs Napoli?
Our model expects about 3.3 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does FC Porto vs Napoli kick off?
FC Porto vs Napoli kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in the Champions League.
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