Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction
Fenerbahçe
LiverpoolNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 83%
- Expected goals 2.3–2.3, so 83% for over 2.5 and 81% for both to score
- Last five: Fenerbahçe DLDWD, Liverpool WWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.3 and 2.3 xG.
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 60% combined.
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Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool preview
Champions League action on Wednesday 4 November sees Liverpool travel to face Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe sit 31st in the table on 2 points from 3 games, while Liverpool are 3rd with 9 points. That puts Liverpool 28 places higher. Recent results matter here: Fenerbahçe have picked up one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five (DLDWD) and Liverpool have won each of their last three (WWW). In front of goal, Fenerbahçe score 1.0 and concede 3.0 a game on average; Liverpool score 4.0 and concede 2.3. Our model expects around 2.3 goals for Fenerbahçe and 2.3 for Liverpool, and 2–2 is the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams to score at 81%. We make Fenerbahçe 40% to win, the draw 21% and Liverpool 40%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 83%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe win | 40% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 21% | – | – | – |
| Liverpool win | 40% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 81% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 19% | – | – | – |
| Fenerbahçe or draw | 60% | – | – | – |
| Liverpool or draw | 60% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 79% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 2.3 |
| Liverpool | 2.3 |
| Total | 4.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe 2–2 Liverpool | 7% |
| Fenerbahçe 1–2 Liverpool | 6% |
| Fenerbahçe 2–1 Liverpool | 6% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | |
| Liverpool |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 31st | 2 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 3rd | 9 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Liverpool | 4.0 | 2.3 |
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: FAQ
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
We make Fenerbahçe 40% to win, the draw 21% and Liverpool 40%, so Liverpool are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
We give both teams to score a 81% chance. Our expected goals are 2.3 for Fenerbahçe and 2.3 for Liverpool.
How many goals in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?
Our model expects about 4.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 83% and under 2.5 at 17%. The single most likely score is 2–2.
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in the Champions League.
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