Lens vs Como prediction
Lens
ComoNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 74%
- Expected goals 2.1–1.7, so 74% for over 2.5 and 74% for both to score
- Last five: Lens LLW, Como WLW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.2 and 1.7 xG.
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 69% combined.
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Lens vs Como preview
Champions League action on Wednesday 4 November sees Como travel to face Lens. In the standings, Como are 9th on 6 points from 3 games and Lens 27th on 3 points from 3 games. That puts Como 18 places higher. Recent results matter here: Lens have picked up one win, no draws and two defeats in their last three (LLW) and Como have picked up two wins, no draws and one defeat in their last three (WLW). Lens average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, compared with 3.3 and 1.7 for Como. On expected goals we have Lens at 2.2 and Como at 1.7, with 1–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 74%. We make Lens 47% to win, the draw 22% and Como 31%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 74%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 47% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 22% | – | – | – |
| Como win | 31% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 74% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 26% | – | – | – |
| Lens or draw | 69% | – | – | – |
| Como or draw | 53% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 78% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Lens | 2.2 |
| Como | 1.7 |
| Total | 3.9 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lens 1–1 Como | 9% |
| Lens 2–1 Como | 8% |
| Lens 2–2 Como | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Lens | |
| Como |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 27th | 3 | 3 |
| Como | 9th | 6 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Como | 3.3 | 1.7 |
Lens vs Como: FAQ
Who will win Lens vs Como?
We make Lens 47% to win, the draw 22% and Como 31%, so Lens are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Como?
We give both teams to score a 74% chance. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Lens and 1.7 for Como.
How many goals in Lens vs Como?
Our model expects about 3.9 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 74% and under 2.5 at 26%. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Lens vs Como kick off?
Lens vs Como kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in the Champions League.
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