Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Villarreal
Paris Saint GermainNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 81%
- Expected goals 2.5–1.9, so 81% for over 2.5 and 78% for both to score
- Last five: Villarreal LWL, Paris Saint Germain WWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Both sides expected to score: 2.5 and 1.9 xG.
Our model gives Villarreal the win 51%.
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Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain preview
Villarreal welcome Paris Saint Germain on Tuesday 3 November in the Champions League. In the standings, Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 9 points from 3 games and Villarreal 19th on 3 points from 3 games. That puts Paris Saint Germain 18 places higher. Recent results matter here: Villarreal have picked up one win, no draws and two defeats in their last three (LWL) and Paris Saint Germain have won each of their last three (WWW). In front of goal, Villarreal score 2.7 and concede 2.7 a game on average; Paris Saint Germain score 4.7 and concede 1.7. Our model expects around 2.5 goals for Villarreal and 1.9 for Paris Saint Germain, and 2–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 78%. We make Villarreal 51% to win, the draw 20% and Paris Saint Germain 28%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 81%. We do not have a bookmaker price for it yet, so we cannot say whether there is value. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 51% | – | – | – |
| Draw | 20% | – | – | – |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 28% | – | – | – |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | – | – | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19% | – | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 78% | – | – | – |
| Not both to score | 22% | – | – | – |
| Villarreal or draw | 72% | – | – | – |
| Paris Saint Germain or draw | 49% | – | – | – |
| Either team to win | 80% | – | – | – |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.5 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.9 |
| Total | 4.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 2–1 Paris Saint Germain | 7% |
| Villarreal 2–2 Paris Saint Germain | 7% |
| Villarreal 1–1 Paris Saint Germain | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 3) | Results |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | |
| Paris Saint Germain |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 19th | 3 | 3 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1st | 9 | 3 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 4.7 | 1.7 |
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: FAQ
Who will win Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
We make Villarreal 51% to win, the draw 20% and Paris Saint Germain 28%, so Villarreal are the more likely winners on our numbers. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 81%.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
We give both teams to score a 78% chance. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Villarreal and 1.9 for Paris Saint Germain.
How many goals in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model expects about 4.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 81% and under 2.5 at 19%. The single most likely score is 2–1.
What time does Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, in the Champions League.
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