ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen prediction
ADO Den Haag
HeerenveenNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 67%; the best price of 1.48 implies 68%
- Expected goals 1.5–2.1, so 67% for over 2.5 and 68% for both to score
- Last five: ADO Den Haag WDDLL, Heerenveen WLWDL
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
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ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen preview
ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen are under way in the Eredivisie on Saturday 24 October. Here is how it shaped up before kick-off. ADO Den Haag sit 16th in the table on 6 points from 9 games, while Heerenveen are 9th with 12 points. That puts Heerenveen seven places higher. Recent results matter here: ADO Den Haag have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WDDLL) and Heerenveen have picked up two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five (WLWDL). On expected goals we have ADO Den Haag at 1.5 and Heerenveen at 2.1, with 1–1 the most likely score (9%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. We make ADO Den Haag 27% to win, the draw 24% and Heerenveen 48%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 28%, 25% and 49%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 67%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.48. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 27% | 3.56 | 28% | -2% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 | 25% | -3% |
| Heerenveen win | 48% | 2.05 | 49% | -1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 | 68% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 2.88 | 35% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 1.44 | 69% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 32% | 2.88 | 35% | -7% |
| ADO Den Haag or draw | 52% | 1.83 | 55% | -6% |
| Heerenveen or draw | 73% | 1.34 | 75% | -3% |
| Either team to win | 76% | 1.27 | 79% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 1.5 |
| Heerenveen | 2.1 |
| Total | 3.7 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag 1–1 Heerenveen | 9% |
| ADO Den Haag 1–2 Heerenveen | 9% |
| ADO Den Haag 2–2 Heerenveen | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | |
| Heerenveen |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 16th | 6 | 9 |
| Heerenveen | 9th | 12 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Heerenveen | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.68 (60%) | 2.20 (45%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.40 (42%) | 1.53 (65%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen: FAQ
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
We make ADO Den Haag 27% to win, the draw 24% and Heerenveen 48%, so Heerenveen are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Heerenveen the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
We give both teams to score a 68% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.5 for ADO Den Haag and 2.1 for Heerenveen.
How many goals in ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
Our model expects about 3.7 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 67% and under 2.5 at 33%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.48. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 UTC on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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