AZ Alkmaar vs Twente prediction
AZ Alkmaar
TwenteNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 64%; the best price of 1.50 implies 67%
- Expected goals 1.7–1.4, so 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both to score
- Last five: AZ Alkmaar DLWDW, Twente LDWWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
No side is clear, so we cover two results: 69% combined.
Both sides expected to score: 1.7 and 1.4 xG.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Twente preview
AZ Alkmaar welcome Twente on Sunday 25 October in the Eredivisie. AZ Alkmaar sit 2nd in the table on 20 points from 9 games, while Twente are 5th with 17 points. Twente come into it having won three of their last five (LDWWW); AZ Alkmaar have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DLWDW). AZ Alkmaar average 2.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, compared with 1.9 and 1.1 for Twente. Our model expects around 1.7 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.4 for Twente, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. We make AZ Alkmaar 44% to win, the draw 25% and Twente 31%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 45%, 25% and 33%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 64%, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. There is no clear value at the current prices, as the bookmakers rate this at least as highly as we do, so treat it as our most likely sensible outcome rather than a value bet. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 44% | 2.23 | 45% | -2% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | 25% | -1% |
| Twente win | 31% | 3.02 | 33% | -5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.50 | 67% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.88 | 35% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.44 | 69% | -5% |
| Not both to score | 34% | 2.88 | 35% | -1% |
| AZ Alkmaar or draw | 69% | 1.42 | 70% | -3% |
| Twente or draw | 56% | 1.70 | 59% | -5% |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.27 | 79% | -4% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.7 |
| Twente | 1.4 |
| Total | 3.1 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Twente | 12% |
| AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Twente | 9% |
| AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Twente | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | |
| Twente |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2nd | 20 | 9 |
| Twente | 5th | 17 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Twente | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.75 (57%) | 2.20 (45%) |
| Cards 3.5 | 2.25 (44%) | 1.60 (63%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: FAQ
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We make AZ Alkmaar 44% to win, the draw 25% and Twente 31%, so AZ Alkmaar are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with AZ Alkmaar the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
We give both teams to score a 66% chance, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.44. Our expected goals are 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.4 for Twente.
How many goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
Our model expects about 3.1 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 64% and under 2.5 at 36%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.50. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Twente kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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