Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen prediction

Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

NEC Nijmegen

13:30

Kick-off (UTC)

Groningen

Our verdict · Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Our chance69%

Best price1.45

Fair odds1.45

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 69%; the best price of 1.45 implies 69%
Expected goals 1.7–2.3, so 69% for over 2.5 and 69% for both to score
Last five: NEC Nijmegen DDDLD, Groningen LWWDD
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 1.7 and 2.3 xG.

69%

@ 1.40

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw

No side is clear, so we cover two results: 63% combined.

63%

@ 1.47

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Every market we price for this match, on the main site.

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NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen preview

NEC Nijmegen host Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October. In the standings, Groningen are 7th on 14 points from 9 games and NEC Nijmegen 12th on 10 points from 9 games. Recent results matter here: NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their last five (four draws, one defeat) (DDDLD) and Groningen have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (LWWDD). NEC Nijmegen average 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, compared with 2.4 and 2.1 for Groningen. On expected goals we have NEC Nijmegen at 1.7 and Groningen at 2.3, with 1–2 the most likely score (8%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. We make NEC Nijmegen 39% to win, the draw 24% and Groningen 37%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 43%, 25% and 35%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 69%, against 69% implied by the best price of 1.45. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Odds can move before kick-off and no prediction is certain.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
NEC Nijmegen win	39%	2.35	43%	-7%
Draw	24%	4.00	25%	-4%
Groningen win	37%	2.88	35%	+5%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	69%	1.45	69%	+0%
Under 2.5 goals	31%	2.91	34%	-10%
Both teams to score	69%	1.40	71%	-3%
Not both to score	31%	2.90	34%	-11%
NEC Nijmegen or draw	63%	1.47	68%	-7%
Groningen or draw	61%	1.65	61%	0%
Either team to win	76%	1.26	79%	-4%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
NEC Nijmegen	1.7
Groningen	2.3
Total	4.0

Most likely scores	Chance
NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Groningen	8%
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen	8%
NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Groningen	7%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
NEC Nijmegen	12th	10	9
Groningen	7th	14	9

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
NEC Nijmegen	1.7	1.8
Groningen	2.4	2.1

Corners and cards lines

Line	Over	Under
Corners 9.5	1.67 (60%)	2.25 (44%)
Cards 3.5	2.30 (43%)	1.57 (64%)

Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: FAQ

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

We make NEC Nijmegen 39% to win, the draw 24% and Groningen 37%, so NEC Nijmegen are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with NEC Nijmegen the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 69%.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

We give both teams to score a 69% chance, against 71% implied by the best price of 1.40. Our expected goals are 1.7 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.3 for Groningen.

How many goals in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?

Our model expects about 4.0 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 69% and under 2.5 at 31%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.45. The single most likely score is 1–2.

What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicks off at 13:30 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.