Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction
Sparta Rotterdam
AjaxNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 68%; the best price of 1.48 implies 68%
- Expected goals 1.3–3.2 (most likely score 1-3)
- Last five: Sparta Rotterdam WDLLD, Ajax WDDWW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.3–3.2, 4.4 in total.
Both sides expected to score: 1.3 and 3.2 xG.
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Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax preview
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October. In the standings, Ajax are 4th on 18 points from 9 games and Sparta Rotterdam 13th on 9 points from 9 games. That puts Ajax nine places higher. On form, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (WDLLD), while Ajax have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDDWW). In front of goal, Sparta Rotterdam score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game on average; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.3. Our model expects around 1.3 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 3.2 for Ajax, and 1–3 is the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 65%. We make Sparta Rotterdam 14% to win, the draw 18% and Ajax 68%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 16%, 19% and 68%. Our verdict is Ajax to win: we rate it at 68%, against 68% implied by the best price of 1.48. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 14% | 6.25 | 16% | -10% |
| Draw | 18% | 5.22 | 19% | -8% |
| Ajax win | 68% | 1.48 | 68% | +1% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | 74% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27% | 3.28 | 30% | -13% |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 1.50 | 67% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 35% | 2.55 | 39% | -10% |
| Sparta Rotterdam or draw | 32% | 3.00 | 33% | -4% |
| Ajax or draw | 86% | 1.15 | 87% | -2% |
| Either team to win | 82% | 1.18 | 85% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.3 |
| Ajax | 3.2 |
| Total | 4.4 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 Ajax | 8% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax | 8% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 0–3 Ajax | 6% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | |
| Ajax |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 13th | 9 | 9 |
| Ajax | 4th | 18 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.3 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.65 (61%) | 2.32 (43%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: FAQ
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We make Sparta Rotterdam 14% to win, the draw 18% and Ajax 68%, so Ajax are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Ajax the shorter price. Our verdict is Ajax to win at 68%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We give both teams to score a 65% chance, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. Our expected goals are 1.3 for Sparta Rotterdam and 3.2 for Ajax.
How many goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our model expects about 4.4 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 73% and under 2.5 at 27%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.36. The single most likely score is 1–3.
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax kicks off at 15:45 UTC on Sunday 25 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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