Eredivisie

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction

Eredivisie · Saturday 7 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

ADO Den Haag

17:45

Kick-off (UTC)

Sparta Rotterdam

Our verdict · Goals

Over 2.5 goals

Our chance62%

Best price1.61

Fair odds1.60

No value edgeConfidence: Low

Why

We make it 62%; the best price of 1.61 implies 62%
Expected goals 2.0–2.2, so 62% for over 2.5 and 64% for both to score
Last five: ADO Den Haag LWDDL, Sparta Rotterdam LWDLL
No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip

Our 2nd and 3rd picks

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

No side is clear, so we cover two results: 65% combined.

65%

@ 1.45

Both teams to score

Both sides expected to score: 2.0 and 2.2 xG.

64%

@ 1.50

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ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam preview

ADO Den Haag welcome Sparta Rotterdam on Saturday 7 November in the Eredivisie. In the standings, Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 9 points from 10 games and ADO Den Haag 17th on 6 points from 10 games. On form, ADO Den Haag have picked up one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five (LWDDL), while Sparta Rotterdam have lost three of their last five (LWDLL). ADO Den Haag average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.7 and 2.4 for Sparta Rotterdam. On expected goals we have ADO Den Haag at 2.0 and Sparta Rotterdam at 2.2, with 1–1 the most likely score (7%).

We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. We make ADO Den Haag 40% to win, the draw 25% and Sparta Rotterdam 35%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 41%, 26% and 35%. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals: we rate it at 62%, against 62% implied by the best price of 1.61. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.

Match result: our chances against the odds

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
ADO Den Haag win	40%	2.41	41%	-4%
Draw	25%	3.80	26%	-4%
Sparta Rotterdam win	35%	2.85	35%	0%

Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.

Goals, both teams to score and double chance

Outcome	Our chance	Best price	Implied	Edge
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.61	62%	+0%
Under 2.5 goals	38%	2.47	40%	-7%
Both teams to score	64%	1.50	67%	-3%
Not both to score	36%	2.55	39%	-9%
ADO Den Haag or draw	65%	1.45	69%	-6%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw	60%	1.62	62%	-3%
Either team to win	75%	1.29	78%	-3%

Expected goals and likely scores

Expected goals	xG
ADO Den Haag	2.0
Sparta Rotterdam	2.2
Total	4.2

Most likely scores	Chance
ADO Den Haag 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam	7%
ADO Den Haag 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam	7%
ADO Den Haag 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam	7%

Form, table and goals

Form (last 5)	Results
ADO Den Haag
Sparta Rotterdam

League position	Pos	Pts	Played
ADO Den Haag	17th	6	10
Sparta Rotterdam	14th	9	10

Goals per game	Scored	Conceded
ADO Den Haag	1.3	2.3
Sparta Rotterdam	1.7	2.4

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam: FAQ

Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

We make ADO Den Haag 40% to win, the draw 25% and Sparta Rotterdam 35%, so ADO Den Haag are the more likely winners on our numbers, though it is close. The bookmakers agree, with ADO Den Haag the shorter price. Our verdict is Over 2.5 goals at 62%.

Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

We give both teams to score a 64% chance, against 67% implied by the best price of 1.50. Our expected goals are 2.0 for ADO Den Haag and 2.2 for Sparta Rotterdam.

How many goals in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our model expects about 4.2 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 62% and under 2.5 at 38%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.61. The single most likely score is 1–1.

What time does ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Eredivisie.