Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Ajax
AZ AlkmaarNo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 52%; the best price of 1.93 implies 52%
- Expected goals 1.8–2.0 (most likely score 1-1)
- Last five: Ajax WDDWW, AZ Alkmaar DLWDW
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Expected goals 1.8–2.0, 3.8 in total.
Both sides expected to score: 1.8 and 2.0 xG.
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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview
Ajax welcome AZ Alkmaar on Saturday 31 October in the Eredivisie. Ajax sit 4th in the table on 18 points from 9 games, while AZ Alkmaar are 2nd with 20 points. On form, Ajax have gone unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws (WDDWW), while AZ Alkmaar have picked up two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five (DLWDW). Ajax average 3.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 2.2 and 1.1 for AZ Alkmaar. Our model expects around 1.8 goals for Ajax and 2.0 for AZ Alkmaar, and 1–1 is the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. We make Ajax 48% to win, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 29%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 53%, 24% and 28%. Our verdict is AZ Alkmaar or draw: we rate it at 52%, against 52% implied by the best price of 1.93. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 48% | 1.90 | 53% | -8% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.22 | 24% | -3% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 29% | 3.63 | 28% | +5% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.44 | 69% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 2.88 | 35% | -8% |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 1.42 | 70% | -3% |
| Not both to score | 32% | 2.81 | 36% | -10% |
| Ajax or draw | 71% | 1.32 | 76% | -6% |
| AZ Alkmaar or draw | 52% | 1.93 | 52% | +0% |
| Either team to win | 77% | 1.23 | 81% | -5% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.8 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.0 |
| Total | 3.8 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ajax 1–1 AZ Alkmaar | 9% |
| Ajax 1–2 AZ Alkmaar | 8% |
| Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| Ajax | |
| AZ Alkmaar |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 4th | 18 | 9 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2nd | 20 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.75 (57%) | 2.00 (50%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: FAQ
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We make Ajax 48% to win, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 29%, so Ajax are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with Ajax the shorter price. Our verdict is AZ Alkmaar or draw at 52%.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We give both teams to score a 68% chance, against 70% implied by the best price of 1.42. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Ajax and 2.0 for AZ Alkmaar.
How many goals in Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model expects about 3.8 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 68% and under 2.5 at 32%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.44. The single most likely score is 1–1.
What time does Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar kicks off at 20:00 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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