PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction
PSV Eindhoven
Willem IINo value edgeConfidence: Low
Why
- We make it 52%; the best price of 1.95 implies 51%
- Expected goals 3.4–1.3, so 83% for over 2.5 and 52% for both to score
- Last five: PSV Eindhoven LWLWW, Willem II LLLLD
- No clear value at current prices, so this is our most likely sensible tip
Our 2nd and 3rd picks
Our model gives PSV Eindhoven the win 90%.
Expected goals 3.4–1.3, 4.6 in total.
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PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II preview
PSV Eindhoven host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Saturday 31 October. In the standings, Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 9 games and PSV Eindhoven 3rd on 19 points from 9 games. That puts PSV Eindhoven 15 places higher. Recent results matter here: PSV Eindhoven have won three of their last five (LWLWW) and Willem II have not won any of their last five (one draw, four defeats) (LLLLD). PSV Eindhoven average 3.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared with 1.0 and 2.9 for Willem II. On expected goals we have PSV Eindhoven at 3.4 and Willem II at 1.3, with 3–1 the most likely score (8%).
We put over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams to score at 52%. We make PSV Eindhoven 90% to win, the draw 7% and Willem II 4%, while the best bookmaker prices imply 93%, 5% and 2%. Our verdict is Both teams to score: we rate it at 52%, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.95. The edge is slim at around 1%, so a small drop in the price would remove it. Prices change, and nothing in football is guaranteed.
Match result: our chances against the odds
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 90% | 1.08 | 93% | -3% |
| Draw | 7% | 18.50 | 5% | +21% |
| Willem II win | 4% | 41.00 | 2% | +44% |
Implied chance is 1 ÷ the best price, so it includes the bookmaker's margin. Edge is our chance × price − 1.
Goals, both teams to score and double chance
| Outcome | Our chance | Best price | Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 1.16 | 86% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17% | 5.50 | 18% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.95 | 51% | +1% |
| Not both to score | 48% | 1.87 | 53% | -10% |
| PSV Eindhoven or draw | 97% | 1.02 | 98% | -2% |
| Willem II or draw | 10% | 11.50 | 9% | +15% |
| Either team to win | 93% | 1.04 | 96% | -3% |
Expected goals and likely scores
| Expected goals | xG |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.4 |
| Willem II | 1.3 |
| Total | 4.6 |
| Most likely scores | Chance |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven 3–1 Willem II | 8% |
| PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Willem II | 7% |
| PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Willem II | 7% |
Form, table and goals
| Form (last 5) | Results |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | |
| Willem II |
| League position | Pos | Pts | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3rd | 19 | 9 |
| Willem II | 18th | 2 | 9 |
| Goals per game | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Willem II | 1.0 | 2.9 |
Corners and cards lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Corners 9.5 | 1.32 (76%) | 3.20 (31%) |
Best available prices, with the implied chance in brackets.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: FAQ
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
We make PSV Eindhoven 90% to win, the draw 7% and Willem II 4%, so PSV Eindhoven are the more likely winners on our numbers. The bookmakers agree, with PSV Eindhoven the shorter price. Our verdict is Both teams to score at 52%.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
We give both teams to score a 52% chance, against 51% implied by the best price of 1.95. Our expected goals are 3.4 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.3 for Willem II.
How many goals in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model expects about 4.6 goals in total. We put over 2.5 goals at 83% and under 2.5 at 17%; the best over 2.5 price is 1.16. The single most likely score is 3–1.
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II kicks off at 17:45 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026, in the Eredivisie.
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